Is that it? Financial crisis over? A look at the stock markets in October 2009 could suggest this conclusion. Prices there have risen by over 50 percent since the low point in March. The credit markets are also signaling something of an all-clear. - In any case, it is clear that macroeconomists disagree about the further course of the crisis. The spectrum of predictions ranges from "V type" (rapid, sharp recovery analogous to 2001/2) to "U" (slow but strong recovery as in 2004/5) and "L" (long stagnation analogous to Japan in the 1990s) to "W" (after a short recovery phase, another downturn before things pick up again).

In the wake of the financial crisis, business with acquisitions, mergers and syndicated loans collapsed completely in 2008. Market participants were paralyzed; suddenly there was no more financing. This trend continued in 2009. Global transaction volumes fell by around 45 percent compared with the previous year. A similar stagnation spread among private equity funds. Nevertheless, their share of global M&A activity has remained at a surprisingly constant level since the outbreak of the financial crisis, even though the overall transaction volume has decreased enormously.

In the meantime, the coffers of more than a few large companies are bulging, not least because companies are once again receiving fresh capital on the stock and bond markets. A number of mergers and acquisitions could soon be in the offing, as the opportunity to go on a shopping spree is now favorable. There is another reason that makes takeovers attractive for companies again: Their financing costs have fallen below the free-cash-flow yield of their potential takeover targets, and so takeovers make sense again.