An economic outlook: It remains uncomfortable

A year ago, we presen­ted our basic scena­rio of a second Trump admi­nis­tra­tion here and discus­sed the possi­ble conse­quen­ces. Many of our assump­ti­ons at the time regar­ding tariffs, immi­gra­tion policy, the war in Ukraine and US fiscal policy have now become reality. Even though the finan­cial markets have become accus­to­med to the erra­tic news on this topic and have become jaded to some extent, it remains extre­mely important for the deve­lo­p­ment of the economy and finan­cial markets. 

A global economy under constant stress: a domi­nant Trump camp in the US, more conflicts, more debt, an EU caught between catching up and falling behind struc­tu­rally. The result is mode­rate growth, vola­tile and rising inte­rest rates and a stron­ger influence of poli­tics and central banks on the markets. US tech remains the driving force, but the end of the major US outper­for­mance opens up new oppor­tu­ni­ties — espe­ci­ally for Euro­pean equi­ties and the DAX until 2030.