Resilience in times of massive change

The frame­work condi­ti­ons for private equity have chan­ged funda­men­tally: Instead of conti­nuous growth, the focus today is on profound uphe­avals. Arti­fi­cial intel­li­gence is chan­ging entire indus­tries at a rapid pace — with enorm­ous poten­tial, but also the risk of quickly rende­ring exis­ting busi­ness models obso­lete. At the same time, the geopo­li­ti­cal situa­tion has become incre­asingly important: Wars, trade barriers and an incre­asingly frag­men­ted world order can change supply chains and sales markets over­night. In addi­tion, previous trends such as direct sales, urban mobi­lity and small-cap SaaS are coming under pres­sure, while solid and suppo­sedly “boring” busi­ness models with stable reve­nues are beco­ming more attrac­tive again. In short, anyone inves­t­ing today has to factor in vola­ti­lity — and cannot neces­s­a­rily rely on stability. 

Resi­li­ence means not only being able to survive in diffi­cult times, but also actively crea­ting value. This requi­res a company to have suffi­ci­ent free funds to remain capa­ble of acting even in a weaker economy. A clear plan is just as important: a well thought-out entry, a reali­stic valua­tion and a long-term stra­tegy for deve­lo­ping the company. Genuine opera­tio­nal impro­ve­ments — for exam­ple through digi­ta­liza­tion, targe­ted acqui­si­ti­ons or clever pricing stra­te­gies — count for more than purely finan­cial measures. 

The ability to deve­lop further in any scena­rio, regard­less of the market envi­ron­ment, is crucial. In other words: the “moat” must be deep again. 

A first indi­ca­tor is the geogra­phi­cal envi­ron­ment: compa­nies based in econo­mic­ally stable regi­ons such as Switz­er­land or Scan­di­na­via bene­fit from a high degree of plan­ning secu­rity. The same applies to niche markets with a chro­nic lack of supply. Custo­mer loyalty is just as important — long-term rela­ti­onships and low churn rates ensure stable sales, even in chal­len­ging times. And finally, it all comes down to the team: commit­ted, trust­wor­thy manage­ment with a clear respon­si­bi­lity struc­ture is often the decisive factor in whether a company over­co­mes diffi­cul­ties and emer­ges stron­ger — or whether it stands or falls with the market environment. 

Ralph Nowak is co-foun­der and mana­ging part­ner of Winter­berg Group (since 2016). He is also co-foun­der and share­hol­der of Singu­lar Group (2019–2025). Previously, he worked at Bryan­s­ton Resour­ces, The Boston Consul­ting Group and Kear­ney. Ralph Nowak holds a Master in Busi­ness Admi­nis­tra­tion (Diplom-Kauf­mann) from WHU, Vallen­dar, Germany. 

Winter­berg Group
Winter­berg Group is a multi-family office invest­ment firm foun­ded and mana­ged by a team of expe­ri­en­ced invest­ment and stra­tegy consul­tants. — www.winterberg.group